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About Ainslie Intelligence

The Ainslie Intelligence Trading Signals is the result of ongoing research and development to provide a state-of-the-art, evolving analysis of crypto, precious metals and other selected markets. The aim is to identify the optimum time to buy and sell for maximum profit and minimum trading risk by utilising sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) based technical analysis.

The Ainslie Intelligence Trading Signals is a subscription-based service. Subscribers receive the Trading Signals delivered by email notification 7 days a week at approximately 2pm Australian Eastern Standard Time, containing the predictions and recommendations for the next trading session.

If you actively trade Forex, Metals or Crypto - this product is for you. Take a peak at our AI Trading Signals - Free for the first 2 weeks of use.

 

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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUEStiONS

 

Why do you produce the Trading Signals?

This Ainslie Intelligence Trading Signals is the result of ongoing research and development to provide a state-of-the-art, evolving analysis of the crypto, precious metals and other selected markets. The aim is to identify the optimum time to buy and sell for maximum profit and minimum trading risk by utilising sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) based technical analysis.

First and foremost, we produce the charts because we need them for our own internal trading and position management. The team was frequently asked by others to explain how we continued to achieve trading success over a variety of market conditions and realised we could repackage the intelligence we have developed and rely upon into a user-friendly format that could be shared with others.

Who are Ainslie Wealth, and why should I trust your Artificial Intelligence claims?

Ainslie Wealth commenced trading as the Australian Bullion Company in 1974, making us the oldest bullion company in Queensland. In 1990 we changed our name to Ainslie Bullion Company. Over nearly 40 years we have become one of Australia’s largest bullion dealers and now also cryptocurrency dealers through an earned reputation of being fair and honest in our trading whilst being very competitive in our pricing.

Ainslie Wealth's scale of operation means we buy at competitive prices and have greater capacity for immediate supply of a full range of bullion and crypto products.  We also have the capacity through scale of being able to buy back larger amounts of bullion and crypto, settling immediately in cash or bank deposit.

As a company, we are branching into the area of sharing our trading intelligence with clients to increase the value we can provide. We have also expanded our team to include additional analysts and technicians with experience successfully implementing Artificial Intelligence into their own real trading strategies to assist in the delivery of a world class product.

Even though all of this means there are lots of reasons to trust us, we don’t want you to rely on that alone. We strongly believe that our charts speak for themselves. Recommendations are accurately recorded on the day they are generated, so their reliability can be directly assessed. There is also the possibility that the signals will continue to improve over time as the AI systems (and their human technicians) continue to learn and refine techniques.

Do you actually trade the Trading Signals recommendations yourself, or do you only make money from selling the Trading Signals to subscribers?

Whilst the Ainslie businesses do not speculate with trading stock (to remove market risk from our ability to always service our customers) we do have a substantial separate investment fund that almost solely trades off these signals.  Several of our staff also use the Trading Signals as part of their personal portfolio management.

We are selling the Trading Signals to subscribers to help subsidise the high cost of running something we need to do anyway. Even if we stopped selling the Trading Signals we would continue producing it daily for our own internal purposes.

What makes these recommendations so special compared to other AI products (such as trading bots) I have heard about?

The first distinction between our AI products and others (such as “automated trading bots”) that can be found online is that the technology behind our AI involves extremely sophisticated deep learning neural networks that are continuously working (24 hours a day) searching for patterns and connections on multiple layers, and across multiple markets. They are always tweaking and improving models and trading strategies, which is necessary because the market is changing and evolving all the time. This also creates the need for full time technicians to assist the AI to learn, adapt and improve with the changing landscape and provide innovative new data sources for the AI to explore.

Our approach is in stark contrast to the “shallow” learning of many simplistic trading bots that are simply applying pre-set rules to trading decisions and running those trades automatically, packaged and sold as “AI”. We do not believe this approach will outperform the market over the long term, and it can be incredibly risky to trust these bots directly with your trading capital, especially as ever more people employ the same bots with the same shallow logic.

Finally, we are very proud to offer recommendations based in Australian Dollars for a predominantly Australian client base. Most charting and analysis services only focus on the US Dollar, which is fine for general trends and trading ideas, but is not particularly useful when your profits are not accurately reflecting your otherwise good trades due to unintended movements of the local currency. It is hard to find any high-quality analysis services focussed on the Australian market, and even harder to find any with an AI focus, so we hope we can fill that gap for our home market.

Why isn’t everyone else already doing this?

The simple answer to the question is that the “big boys” ARE already doing this! AI has been described as ushering in the next technological revolution on par with the industrial revolution of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and the biggest investment names in the world are well and truly on board. They are collecting talent and technology as quickly as they can to keep their trading desks competitive, and they keep all of their analysis proprietary. This leaves the rest of us at a significant disadvantage if we don’t have access to our own quality AI analysis to apply to our trading.

Staying ahead of the curve is not easy. The barrier to entry is high and expensive. We have a whole team of people involved to produce our Trading Signals each day to maintain an edge. The technology behind the AI is ultimately about pattern recognition. It associates output predictions with patterns that it finds in the inputs. In other words, it makes predictions about the future based on what happened in the past when similar input patterns occurred. The key to success is knowing what specific inputs to use that will allow the AI to find the best possible output prediction, which requires skills and experience that we possess and continue to develop.

If the recommendations are so good then doesn’t sharing the Trading Signals with subscribers reduce their value?

We don’t believe so. We specifically focus on markets with deep liquidity so that the trades of our subscribers should not impact the price in any significant way or provide any one trader with an advantage over any other trader.

What is the process used to construct the Trading Signals?

The AI systems, supported by their specialist human technicians, apply the following advanced processes to develop precise buy and sell recommendations:

  • Various proprietary data streams (across different markets) are provided that may be related to the price movement of the chart under investigation
  • Specific proprietary indicators are provided, including traditional indicators, zero lag indicators, fuzzy logic indicators, adaptive indicators, clustering indicators, neural indicators and prediction signal indicators
  • AI genetic algorithms and evolutionary optimisation strategies are used to fine-tune the indicator variables over a very large number of iterations
  • AI deep learning neural networks are used to find patterns in the data streams (including multi-dimensional patterns too intricate for a human to identify), with the help of the optimised indicators contributing in optimised combinations, to produce the most profitable tradable models with minimal trading risk
  • Each model is extensively tested using unseen data to check performance reliability, and abandoned or advanced for further improvement, dependent on the result
  • The final selected model is used to create a prediction into the future about what is most likely to happen next, and the appropriate recommendation is made (buy, sell or hold)
  • The previous learnings are captured as a starting point and the evolution begins again when new data is added (daily)
  • A virtual “panel of experts” is formed, utilising several of the most recent AI predictions to form a majority prediction that is then presented on the daily chart as either a continuation or change (new buy or sell signal) recommendation.

This is a highly complex and computationally expensive procedure, that requires distributed processing across multiple cores of dedicated servers, running 24 hours a day.

How do I interpret the charts?

Even though the AI technical analysis is complicated, the chart representation of the recommendation is very easy to understand. A new buy or sell signal is displayed as a new green or red arrow with the date. The recommendation remains in place until a new buy or sell is generated in the opposite direction.

When viewing a chart today, it is important to remember that the AI technical analysis may not necessarily be making a recommendation based on what it anticipates the price to be tomorrow. It may be predicting that remaining in a buy or sell position is more likely to be profitable as the price heads towards an upcoming expected peak or trough rather than whether the price movement on any given day will be up or down.

It is also worth mentioning that not all subscribers will use the Trading Signals in the same way, and we do not provide advice on how you should use it to meet your specific financial objectives. Some examples of how different people might choose to use the Trading Signals include:

  • A short term crypto trader may switch between ETH and BTC on each recommendation change of the ETH Price in BTC chart to take advantage of the relative price movement while always remaining invested in crypto and never cashing out for AUD
  • A long term physical precious metals holder might wait for “Buy” recommendations on the Gold and Silver Price in AUD charts to increase their positions, ignoring “Sell” recommendations until they want to cash out after a significant increase in price in the future
  • A business purchasing wholesale products from overseas might enter an AUD/USD short position on a foreign exchange trading platform to hedge their currency exposure risk on an AUD/USD “Sell” recommendation
  • A cautious crypto trader with a strong belief in the potential for XRP might purchase some with cash on a “Buy” recommendation on the XRP Price in AUD chart and sell it back for cash on a “Sell” recommendation to protect their gains and reduce downside risk
  • … the possibilities are endless.

What do the “Buy” and “Sell” recommendations really mean?

A new “Buy” or “Sell” recommendation is a summary of a whole range of different factors coming together to form a prediction into the future about what the AI believes is going to happen next. This can be a little complex to understand, because it is not necessarily predicting that the next price movement will be up or down. Rather, it is attempting to predict the best way to make the highest percentage profit gain, while taking the lowest trading risk, when modelled on average (when traded this way multiple times over the long term). This is often confused and is important to understand, as it may involve predicting that remaining in a longer term “Buy” or “Sell” position, when the market is moving against you, is better than switching and trying to capture every small price change, because that particular approach, in similar situations with many and varied elements taken into consideration, is the best decision to make for this market at this particular time. In other words, there is lots of logic backing every recommendation, but it may not always be obvious to us when observing it on the chart.

How long does a recommendation last for?

Recommendations can last from as little as a single day up to several months. It entirely depends on what the AI is predicting and how the market is moving. From our observations over time, we have found that the recommendation length changes adaptively with different markets under different conditions but tends to average between 1 and 2 weeks.

You display a percentage performance figure with each chart. How is that figure calculated and is it an accurate indication of the return I can expect to make if I follow the recommendations precisely each day?

As there are an unlimited number of ways you can use the charts, there are also an unlimited number of ways you can measure the performance of the charts. Since the recommendations are accurately recorded on the day they are generated, you can directly assess their reliability yourself, understanding that previous performance does not necessarily predict future success and there is also the possibility that the signals will continue to improve over time as the AI systems (and their human technicians) continue to learn and refine techniques.

As an indicative measure only, we include a percentage performance figure with each chart, which is the simple addition of idealised percent gains and losses made by each recommendation over the past 12 months, up to the current date. This is calculated from “Buy” to “Sell” signal as ((sell price – buy price) / buy price) * 100%, and from “Sell” to “Buy” signal as ((sell price – buy price) / sell price) * 100%. It assumes that a trader has the opportunity to enter a “long” position for the duration of a “Buy” recommendation and a “short” position for the duration of a “Sell” recommendation, which may not be practical or possible for all traders.

The figure may not relate at all to your experience, depending entirely on how you use the Trading Signals. It also does not take into account any trading fees, which will also vary depending on your circumstances. The figure is useful, however, as a quick reference to indicate general success of the recommendations using a standardised approach to measurement each day, which is transparent and a lot more than you get from other trading services who are often unwilling to openly display their ongoing success of failure rates in real time.

How old is the data used to produce the Trading Signals and does the age of the data impact on the profitability?

Our trading day ends at 10am Australian Eastern Standard Time (which is 0:00 UTC). We receive our data from the previous 24 hours from a variety of third party sources between 10am and approximately 12pm. We then update all of the modelling with the new data for the day and produce and distribute the Trading Signals by 2pm. This means that the new data in the Trading Signals is always 4 hours old when distributed at 2pm.

We don’t believe 4 hour old data impacts profitability negatively on average, based on the daily timeframes the AI is working with, but regardless it is a labour intensive job to meet the 2pm deadline with all of the steps involved so this is the fastest we can possibly get the information to you.

What do “Buy” and “Sell” mean for markets not priced in AUD (ETH Price in BTC, Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) and AUD/USD)?

For ETH Price in BTC a “Buy” recommendation means exchange BTC to receive and hold ETH. A “Sell” recommendation means exchange ETH to receive and hold BTC.

For the Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) a “Buy” recommendation means exchange Silver to receive and hold Gold. A “Sell” recommendation means exchange Gold to receive and hold Silver.

For AUD/USD a “Buy” recommendation means exchange USD to receive and hold AUD. A “Sell” recommendation means exchange AUD to receive and hold USD.

Why do the recommendations on different charts sometimes appear to contradict each other (when the charts are directly related)?

This can occasionally occur, for example there could be a “Buy” recommendation on the Gold Price in AUD chart, a “Sell” recommendation on the Silver Price in AUD chart and a “Sell” recommendation on the Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) chart, which would appear to be directly contradicting the Gold and Silver Price in AUD recommendations. Even though the AI is using data from a wide range of sources, it is only considering each chart individually when making a prediction. It is also possible that all 3 recommendations could end up being correct as we have no way of assessing the timeframe the current prediction for each chart is using.

What should I do when recommendations turn out to be wrong?

This is, in many ways, the most important question. Financial markets are driven by a myriad of complex variables that are frequently changing. It is therefore quite unreasonable to expect that any model will be 100% right 100% of the time, or anything even approaching that goal. We believe that success comes if you can build some models that make money most of the time. The idea is to build a system that makes more money on average than it loses, that doesn’t take any unnecessarily large losses, and that does better than you can do trading exclusively with your “human brain” and all of the emotional baggage that it brings with it.

The biggest advantage that the AI behind our Trading Signals offers is that it is not a static trading system. It is dynamic and always learning. If it continued to be wrong over the long term then it would be either a truly unpredictable market (which we consider to be unlikely as all markets are simply a reflection of their participants and we believe market participants can be modelled) or we are not giving the AI the information it needs to find tradeable relationships. We continue to work tirelessly to improve and refine the data and systems, from multiple and diverse sources, over time to solve this problem.

As much as it can seem like it does sometimes, the AI cannot actually see into the future. It is making the best “educated prediction” it can make, based on all of the information it is provided, for a given market on a given day. We believe the Trading Signals are just one tool necessary for surviving difficult markets and remaining in the game long enough to capture the big profit runs when they arrive. The other tools are patience, persistence and diversification, but ultimately your approach and trading strategy remain your own to master.

How does the AI respond to “black swan” events that are unpredictable?

A “black swan” is an event in the market that is impossible to predict yet has catastrophic ramifications. The AI cannot predict a true black swan event, but often things we think of as black swans may actually be just a trigger that causes the market to respond in a particular way that can be predicted. We believe that the most important thing the AI can bring to a black swan event is the removal of emotion from trading through the turbulence that is created. The AI will respond in the same logical and well considered way it always does, looking for patterns and identifying the best position you should be in to maximise profit and minimise trading risk going forward. This is something a human is not very good at doing in the heat of the moment.

Why are you only providing recommendations for these particular markets, and how do we get additional markets added?

Producing each chart is very time consuming and resource intensive (in terms of both human and machine time and resources). This limits the number of markets we can effectively analyse and report on. We have selected the markets we needed the analysis for ourselves, that also best suit the needs of our predominantly Australian clients (although international clients are also invited to contact us for further information). As we acquire a larger team and even more powerful AI hardware into the future we may consider adding more. If you would like us to consider a particular market you have in mind, you are always welcome to get in contact with us via one of the contact methods listed below and we will take your feedback into consideration.

I’m convinced! How can I subscribe?

The easiest and fastest way is to subscribe online for immediate access (www.ainsliewealth.com.au/ai). You can also email us ([email protected]), call us (1800 159 433 - International +61 7 3221 0500) or visit our office (Level 6, 12 Creek Street, Brisbane, Australia) for personal service from one of our experienced sales consultants during business hours if you are not comfortable subscribing online.

My question wasn’t answered here, how can I get more answers?

We consider our assistance to be part and parcel of our Trading Signals offering. Ainslie has a long history of providing the patient and thoughtful “personal touch” that can be hard to find, especially when it comes to finance and online services, or when you are learning about something new like AI. If you have any questions at all we are more than willing to spend the time to help you fully understand.

You can contact us via any of the following methods for further information.